Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

The Knicks lead the series 3-2 after a 121-91 Game 5 rout. New York had a winning road record during the regular season, anchored by a dynamite defense that was second in the NBA in points given up. They outscored opponents by +4.6 points per game, second only to Boston in the Eastern Conference. Indiana's defense was 27th in points surrendered, 28th in field goal shooting allowed (49.5%), and 28th at defending beyond the arc (38.4%). New York won twice on the road in the last series at Philadelphia, 118-115 and 97-92 as underdogs of +3 and +5, and has more than enough to close this series out, but I'm grabbing the points here. New York is 26-20 ATS on the road this year, including 9-4 ATS (69%) in the past three months as the underdog. Take New York to cover.

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle's criticism of the officiating in the first two games of the series apparently paid off as the Pacers tied the series at 2-2 with a dominating 121-89 victory on Sunday. The Pacers built a 43-point lead at one point and took advantage of New York's 33.7 percent overall shooting as the Knicks missed 30 of 37 3-point attempts. The good news for the Knicks is they are going home where they won Games 1 and 2, and NBA teams that suffer a humiliation usually bounce back in a big way—especially in the playoffs—when the emotional swings are dramatic. New York is 8-1 OVER following an ATS loss and 7-1 OVER its past eight games overall as a favorite. The Knicks are 13-3 OVER playing with one day of rest and Indiana is 6-0 OVER as a road underdog. Take the Knicks on the moneyline and the OVER.

The home team has won every game of this series. New York's O.G. Anunoby is questionable (Hamstring) to play, their fourth-leading scorer in the playoffs (16.4 points per game). The Knicks have already lost All-Star Julius Randle (24 ppg, 9.2 rpg) along with Bojan Bogdanovic (10.4 ppg) and Mitchell Robinson to season-ending injuries. NBA road underdogs like the Knicks that outrebound opponents by 3+ boards per game are 183-283 ATS. Up-tempo Indiana is 22-10 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days. Indiana has won all four of its home playoff games and is 27-16 ATS after playing a home game, plus 29-12 ATS after a game where they failed to cover. Play Indiana. 

The Pacers were one game over .500 on the road during the regular season as the defense was soft ranked 27th in points surrendered and last in field goal shooting allowed (49.6%). In the playoffs, the defense has allowed the third-most points and field goal shooting. Indiana is 18-29 ATS after a spread cover. New York is fourth in the playoffs in points scored and is a terrific defensive squad, second during the regular season in points allowed. The Knicks are 37-22 ATS against teams that shoot 48%+ from the field, 55-41 ATS as a favorite, and 24-15 ATS after a game where they failed to cover. Play New York as a Max Play.