Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota must somehow regain the composure and confidence it had when winning the first two games of the series in order to stay alive. The Timberwolves do not depend a whole lot on 3-point shots, but they'll have to do better than their 8-for-26 showing in Game 5. They actually shot 57.7 percent on 2-pointers. Nikola Jokic scored 40 points, but no one else on the Nuggets had more than 16. Minnesota is 28-17 UNDER in the first half its past 45 games and it will obviously have to come out focused immediately on the defensive end in this elimination game. The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Denver's past 52 games after winning by double digits. Minnesota is a slight favorite in this game and the Nuggets have a home game in hand in case it's needed. Two Max Plays on this game: Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline (Max), and make it a Max Play on the first-half UNDER.

Denver lost the first two at home before getting a 117-90 blowout win in Game 3. But they're 6-4 straight up over their last 10 road games, losing four of those as favorites, including two as chalk of -10.5 and -11.5. Minnesota has a second chance to take command of this series. They were 30-11 straight up at home during the regular season, the fifth-most home victories. Their +6.5-point differential was the third-best in the NBA. During the regular season, the Timberwolves were 10th in scoring and third in 3-point shooting (38.7%), while the defense was No. 1 in points given up and in field goal shooting allowed. They've only lost two in a row four times all season, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play Minnesota on the moneyline. 

Denver is on the ropes already, losing the first two of this series at home. The Nuggets are 19-34 ATS against divisional opponents. Minnesota is on a 6-0 SU/ATS run after winning two at Denver, 106-99 and 106-80 as underdogs. What's even more remarkable about the last game is that they played without NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who was off tending to his newborn son. Gobert will receive the award before Game 3 in front of a fan base that will be in a frenzy. The Timberwolves had the fifth-best home record (30-11) during the regular season when they ranked 10th offensively in shooting and No. 1 in points and shooting allowed. Minnesota is 19-8 ATS against teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game, 35-20 ATS versus divisional foes, and 26-12 ATS at home after a double-digit victory. Play Minnesota as a Max Play.