Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals

Toronto is on a 4-9 run after splitting the first two of this series, including a 9-3 loss as -200 chalk. They're 8-11 on the road and are getting outscored by 34 runs, the fourth-worst differential in the AL. The offense is 26th in runs scored, 20th in on-base percentage, 21st in slugging, and 21st in steals, while the pitching is 22nd in ERA (4.33) and 26th in the pen (5.18 ERA). Alek Manoah (5.87 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut, not having pitched in the majors since last August. He's been dealing with shoulder discomfort and struggled with an 8.69 ERA in five starts across Single and Triple-A. The Blue Jays are 35-40 versus lefty starters. Washington is on an 8-6 run cashing as underdogs of +155, +155, +110, +125, +120, +130, +185, and +185. The offense is second in the majors in steals, while the defense is seventh in fielding percentage. Starter MacKenzie Gore (3.19 ERA) has a 38-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and the Nationals are 10-6 after a loss. Play Washington.  

Toronto is on a 3-9 run after losing to Washington yesterday, 9-3, as a two-dollar favorite. They're 7-11 on the road and are getting outscored by 37 runs, the third-worst differential in the AL. The offense is 26th in runs scored, 19th in on-base percentage, 22nd in slugging, and 19th in steals, while the pitching is 24th in ERA (4.37) and 26th in the pen (5.11 ERA). Batters are hitting .281 off starter Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays are 31-34 as chalk of -125 to -175. Washington is on an 8-5 run cashing as underdogs of +155, +155, +110, +125, +120, +130, +185, and +185. The offense is second in the majors in steals, while the defense is second in fielding percentage. The Nationals are 17-8 against AL teams averaging 4.4 or fewer runs per game. Play Washington. 

Toronto is on a 3-8 run despite playing the last six at home. They're 7-10 on the road and are getting outscored by 31 runs, the fifth-worst differential in the AL. The offense is 26th in runs scored, 16th in on-base percentage, 23rd in slugging, and 20th in steals, while the pitching is 23rd in ERA (4.34) and 18th in the pen (4.88 ERA). The Blue Jays are 21-32 after playing four or more straight home games, plus 35-39 versus lefty starters. Washington is on a 7-5 run cashing as underdogs of +155, +155, +110, +125, +120, +130, and +185. Patrick Corbin threw 5 shutout innings against the Dodgers in his last home start and the offense is second in the majors in steals. They're also second in fielding percentage. The Nationals are 16-8 versus AL teams averaging 4.4 or fewer runs per game. Play Washington. 

It's hard to believe the Washington Nationals are ahead of the NY Mets in the NL East. The Nationals have played much better late in the season, as their young players are starting to catch on. The Nationals are a shocking 17-8 in their last 25 games. That leaves this team with a 19-6 record if all games were to a +1.5 run line. Toronto has been dancing outside of the wild card entry to the playoffs, as they continue to struggle. The Jays are an ugly 8-11 in their last 19 games. The Jay's if posted at -1.5 those last 19 games, would show a run line mark of 5-14. Like how the Nats have not quit. Make the play on Washington on the runline.

Washington is on an 8-4 run winning all eight as an underdog. MacKenzie Gore is quietly having an impressive season with 145 strikeouts in 127+ innings while allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. The Nationals are 26-24 as an underdog of +175 to +250, including 20-19 as a road dog of +175 to +250. They're also 9-5 on the road after two or more straight losses. Toronto has dropped four of six, losing all four as chalk. Two games ago, they were a -210 favorite at home over Cleveland and lost 10-7. The Blue Jays are 2-5 in the last seven starts made by Jose Berrios, as well as 1-4 in his last five home starts. With Toronto 10-22 after four or more straight home games, back the visiting dog that is playing well. Make it a Max Play on Washington.