Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago will try to make it two in a row over the Brewers after building a 5-0 lead on Saturday and then holding on to win 6-5. The Cubs have Javier Assad on the mound and he is 2-0 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP and he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his six starts in 2024. Assad has been even better at home where he has given up just two runs in 16 1/3 innings. The Cub bullpen is tied for second in the National League with 11 saves. The UNDER is 5-0 in Assad's past five starts in Game 3 of a series and his past four starts have stayed UNDER overall. Chicago is 6-0-1 UNDER versus teams that scored at least five runs their previous game. The Cubs are 11-4 at home this season. Take the Cubs and the UNDER as my Total of the Month Max Play.

Chicago will look to bounce back from Friday's 3-1 loss to the Brewers, who moved two games ahead in the NL Central. Jameson Taillon will make his fourth start for Chicago and the Cubs won the first three and he has allowed just three earned runs in 18 innings, including a 3-1 win over the Mets on Monday when Taillon gave up one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings. Tobias Myers will make his third start for Milwaukee and he gave up four runs in five innings in a 15-5 loss to the New York Yankees on Sunday. Taillon's teams are 9-4 in his 13 starts against the Brewers and the Cubs are 9-1-1 UNDER following a loss and 6-1-1 UNDER in Taillon's past eight home starts. Chicago is 10-2 its past 12 home games versus teams with .600 road winning percentages. Take the Cubs and the UNDER.

Chicago plays its sixth straight road contest and it's been a bad trip (1-4). Justin Steele has been great at Wrigley Field this season but his ERA is a full run higher on the road. The Cubs have lost his last four starts allowing 16 runs in 21+ innings. Chicago is 2-13 after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. Milwaukee is on a 7-4 run and plays its sixth consecutive home contest. Starter Adrian Houser has a 1.80 ERA versus the Cubs this season. The Brewers are a strong bounce-back team, 41-28 after a defeat, making this an excellent situational and matchup spot for the home team. Play Milwaukee.